The Potential for Superhot Rock Energy in the Middle East and North Africa

Superhot rock energy’s enormous potential in the Middle East and North Africa

First-of-a-kind modeling from Clean Air Task Force and the University of Twente in the Netherlands estimates superhot rock energy potential around the world. This modeling represents preliminary estimates of superhot rock potential, rather than confirmed resources. Nevertheless, it suggests that MENA is well endowed with superhot rock resources, as illustrated in the global map.ⁱ

CATF’s model finds superhot rock energy potential across as much as 50% of MENA’s land area – amounting to more than 2.5 million square kilometers – at depths below 12.5 km. With a concerted focus on deep drilling research and technology innovation, MENA should be able to access superhot rock nearly anywhere. 

Just 1% of the Middle East and North Africa’s superhot rock resource has the potential to provide 7.2 terawatts of energy capacity, which could generate nearly 60,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity. Though these numbers are only preliminary, their scale is enormous. To provide perspective, the city of Dubai consumed 53.1 TWh in 2022, so MENA’s superhot rock energy resource capacity could theoretically satisfy the annual electricity demands of over 1,200 additional cities equivalent to Dubai.  

Leveraging subsurface expertise

MENA is renowned for its subsurface expertise and infrastructure. To take just one example, the Saudi Arabian Oil Group (ARAMCO) is the largest oil and gas company in the world, with a workforce of over 70,000 employees.¹¹ ARAMCO and other oil and gas majors in the region are well poised to champion superhot rock on both domestic and foreign soil. They maintain deep expertise in many of the technical areas needed to deploy superhot rock energy quickly and a fleet of international assets, such as drilling rigs and contractual partners, that could do so at a global scale. For example, an intensive drilling and resource development program by well-funded consortia that include oil and gas industry players across MENA could provide the knowledge and innovation needed to develop and rapidly commercialize superhot rock energy. 

Environmental and health benefits

The combined Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement for all Middle Eastern and North African countries that have significant superhot rock energy resourcesⁱⁱ aim to reduce emissions by nearly 500 megatonnes of CO2eq annually by 2030. Additionally, numerous countries in the region  have adopted zero-carbon or climate neutrality goals.ⁱⁱⁱ MENA’s superhot rock energy endowment could replace fossil-based energy sources and their associated carbon emissions. While it is improbable that superhot rock energy will reach commercial scale in time to support 2030 climate goals, it does have the potential to enable low-carbon energy development over time. Superhot rock energy would also provide air quality and health benefits by reducing nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, and other toxic pollutants associated with the combustion of fossil fuels. And excess superhot rock energy could help MENA produce zero-carbon fuels for decarbonizing industrial and transportation sectors. 

Desalination potential

Desalination is a major contributor to water supplies in MENA. In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, for example, desalination provides about 70% of drinking water. The Kingdom produces over 2 billion cubic meters of desalinated seawater every year, which consumes about 6.64 TWh of electricity generated by 25% of the country’s total domestic oil and gas production. The share of oil and gas used to desalinate seawater is expected to increase to 50% by 2030. Fully realizing superhot rock energy’s potential in Saudi Arabia could produce enough electricity to meet the Kingdom’s total yearly electricity demand, including the expected increase in demand for desalination, with over 16,000 TWh remaining for new desalination or other uses. Similar results would occur in other Middle Eastern and North African countries with significant desalination needs, either now or in the future. 

Efficient land use

Superhot rock energy is expected to be an extremely energy-dense resource, so its land requirements will be exceptionally low.  Producing 1 GW of superhot rock energy is estimated to require roughly 12 km² of land, compared to approximately 160 km² of land for natural gas, 180 km² for solar, 520 km² for offshore wind, and 14,000 km² for biomass.^iv

What will this cost?

According to preliminary modeling, electricity produced from mature superhot rock energy resources could be competitive with conventional power sources priced potentially as low as $25-40 (USD) per MWh on a global average.^v Initial costs will be higher for first-of-a-kind projects but are likely to progressively decline in the same way that unconventional shale gas, solar, and wind project costs have declined after commercialization.

Figure 3: Illustrative graph shows how electricity produced from superhot rock is expected to be competitive for Nth-of-a-kind plants (NOAK) based on estimated levelized cost of electricity after full commercialization

With the right funding and policy support, superhot rock energy could develop to its full potential: creating abundant renewable energy around the world. 

To learn more about the policy and technology innovations required to fulfill superhot rock energy’s revolutionary potential, visit our website. See more findings from CATF’s heat mapping research here. For inquiries, contact [email protected].