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Case Study

The Potential for Superhot Rock Energy in the Middle East and North Africa

What if there were a ubiquitous, always-on renewable energy source with the potential to replace fossil fuel power generation and meet much of the world’s future energy needs? What if that energy source could provide firm power without variability issues? What if it had a low land footprint and was available around the world, reducing the need to import energy? 

This energy source is possible. It’s called superhot rock energy.

The power of superhot rock geothermal energy

Superhot rock energy is an emerging energy source that will harness massive stores of renewable energy by pumping water deep into hot underground rocks, where it naturally heats up and then returns to the surface as steam. That steam could be used to produce carbon-free electricity, clean hydrogen, and other high-energy-intensity products. 

Traditional geothermal systems in operation today only work in regions where hot water naturally exists near the earth’s surface. By contrast, superhot rock energy systems would reach deeper into the earth and wouldn’t require underground sources of water, making them viable across the globe. With appropriate investment to overcome technological hurdles, superhot rock energy could reach commercial scale. If this is achieved, superhot rock energy could provide clean firm power at scale without the import risk and land-use footprint of other energy sources. 

Superhot rock energy’s enormous potential in the Middle East and North Africa

First-of-a-kind modeling from Clean Air Task Force and the University of Twente in the Netherlands estimates superhot rock energy potential around the world. This modeling represents preliminary estimates of superhot rock potential, rather than confirmed resources. Nevertheless, it suggests that MENA is well endowed with superhot rock resources, as illustrated in the global map.i

CATF’s model finds superhot rock energy potential across as much as 50% of MENA’s land area – amounting to more than 2.5 million square kilometers – at depths below 12.5 km. With a concerted focus on deep drilling research and technology innovation, MENA should be able to access superhot rock nearly anywhere. 

Just 1% of the Middle East and North Africa’s superhot rock resource has the potential to provide 7.2 terawatts of energy capacity, which could generate nearly 60,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity. Though these numbers are only preliminary, their scale is enormous. To provide perspective, the city of Dubai consumed 53.1 TWh in 2022, so MENA’s superhot rock energy resource capacity could theoretically satisfy the annual electricity demands of over 1,200 additional cities equivalent to Dubai.  

Energy demand in MENA

The Middle East and North Africa’s energy demand is projected to rise over the coming decades due to a growing population, higher per-capita energy consumption, and the electrification of additional sectors of the economy. Countries in MENA will also need to adopt more energy-intensive technologies to adapt to rising temperatures and extended droughts, while shifting their energy sectors away from fossil fuels. 

MENA’s superhot rock energy capacity potential is significantly more than the region’s needed carbon-free capacity. If fully deployed and utilized, MENA’s superhot rock resource potential could fully meet the region’s energy demand with thousands of terawatt-hours of generation potential remaining to be exported in the form of high-electricity consuming products or zero-carbon fuels. 

Leveraging subsurface expertise

MENA is renowned for its subsurface expertise and infrastructure. To take just one example, the Saudi Arabian Oil Group (ARAMCO) is the largest oil and gas company in the world, with a workforce of over 70,000 employees.¹¹ ARAMCO and other oil and gas majors in the region are well poised to champion superhot rock on both domestic and foreign soil. They maintain deep expertise in many of the technical areas needed to deploy superhot rock energy quickly and a fleet of international assets, such as drilling rigs and contractual partners, that could do so at a global scale. For example, an intensive drilling and resource development program by well-funded consortia that include oil and gas industry players across MENA could provide the knowledge and innovation needed to develop and rapidly commercialize superhot rock energy. 

Environmental and health benefits

The combined Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement for all Middle Eastern and North African countries that have significant superhot rock energy resourcesii aim to reduce emissions by nearly 500 megatonnes of CO2eq annually by 2030. Additionally, numerous countries in the region  have adopted zero-carbon or climate neutrality goals.iii MENA’s superhot rock energy endowment could replace fossil-based energy sources and their associated carbon emissions. While it is improbable that superhot rock energy will reach commercial scale in time to support 2030 climate goals, it does have the potential to enable low-carbon energy development over time. Superhot rock energy would also provide air quality and health benefits by reducing nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, and other toxic pollutants associated with the combustion of fossil fuels. And excess superhot rock energy could help MENA produce zero-carbon fuels for decarbonizing industrial and transportation sectors. 

Desalination potential

Desalination is a major contributor to water supplies in MENA. In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, for example, desalination provides about 70% of drinking water. The Kingdom produces over 2 billion cubic meters of desalinated seawater every year, which consumes about 6.64 TWh of electricity generated by 25% of the country’s total domestic oil and gas production. The share of oil and gas used to desalinate seawater is expected to increase to 50% by 2030. Fully realizing superhot rock energy’s potential in Saudi Arabia could produce enough electricity to meet the Kingdom’s total yearly electricity demand, including the expected increase in demand for desalination, with over 16,000 TWh remaining for new desalination or other uses. Similar results would occur in other Middle Eastern and North African countries with significant desalination needs, either now or in the future. 

Efficient land use

Superhot rock energy is expected to be an extremely energy-dense resource, so its land requirements will be exceptionally low.  Producing 1 GW of superhot rock energy is estimated to require roughly 12 km2 of land, compared to approximately 160 km2 of land for natural gas, 180 km2 for solar, 520 km2 for offshore wind, and 14,000 km2 for biomass.iv

What will this cost?

According to preliminary modeling, electricity produced from mature superhot rock energy resources could be competitive with conventional power sources priced potentially as low as $25-40 (USD) per MWh on a global average.v Initial costs will be higher for first-of-a-kind projects but are likely to progressively decline in the same way that unconventional shale gas, solar, and wind project costs have declined after commercialization.

With the right funding and policy support, superhot rock energy could develop to its full potential: creating abundant renewable energy around the world. 

To learn more about the policy and technology innovations required to fulfill superhot rock energy’s revolutionary potential, visit our website. See more findings from CATF’s heat mapping research here. For inquiries, contact [email protected]


i. Methodology forthcoming

ii. Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen

iii. Jordan, Morocco, Oman, and Saudi Arabia

iv. Land use estimates for superhot rock energy from LucidCatalyst and Hotrock Research Organization. (2023). A Preliminary Techno-Economic Model of Superhot Rock Energy. Land use estimates for all other energy sources from Lovering, Jessica, Swain, Marian, Blomqvist, Linus, & Hernandez, Rebecca R. (2022). “Land-use intensity of electricity production and tomorrow’s energy landscape.” PLoS ONE 17(7): e0270155.

v. The cost scenarios were developed using CATF’s SHR technoeconomic model (Herter, 2023). It is important to understand that water risk or restriction has not been considered. Furthermore, the LCOE report assumes engineering innovations in deep drilling, reservoir creation, well construction and downhole tools needed to allow the commercial development of a superhot rock geothermal project. These cost estimates do not represent the likely costs for first-of-a-kind superhot rock plants. Rather, the report estimates costs for Nth-of-a-kind plants. Furthermore, the report is considering operation conductions and knowledge present in the United States. The numbers have not been adjusted for regional cost biases.

Future state of superhot rock:
Key steps to success

Private and public investment

Investment from both private and public sources is needed to help superhot rock energy reach its full potential. It will require resources of governments, geothermal industry, academic institutions, oil and gas industry, and technology companies.

Government investment

Early government investments can jumpstart the process of commercialization by providing drilling campaign incentives, funding early-stage R&D to “de-risk” superhot rock in the public and private sector, funding pilot projects, and enhancing cooperation among international projects.


New policies are needed to ensure that superhot rock energy development is both safe and efficient. Institutional frameworks are also required to provide the resources needed for development and scalability at a global level.

Curious to learn more?

Take a deeper dive into superhot rock

Learn more about how the superhot rock process works and explore the potential benefits this source of energy has to offer.