Cooling Diplomacy and the Middle East’s Role in the New Geopolitics of Heat
As climate extremes accelerate, the global energy agenda is shifting—quietly but decisively—from heating to cooling. Once considered a luxury in temperate climates, cooling is rapidly becoming a matter of resilience and survival. From Europe to South Asia, the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves are testing the limits of existing energy infrastructure, straining electricity grids, and threatening public health and economic productivity.
With rising temperatures and economic development in the most exposed regions, cooling is poised to become one of the dominant drivers of electricity demand worldwide. Without effective systems or smart and timely policies, domestic governments risk becoming locked in a carbon-intensive adaptation cycle—utilizing more fossil fuels to endure the very climate change effects to which they are contributing.
At the center of meeting this challenge lies an unlikely potential leader. The Middle East, long accustomed to scorching heat, has spent decades building efficient, centralized cooling systems—technologies born out of necessity. Today, that necessity has become an asset. With its engineering know-how, infrastructure experience, and growing investment footprint, the region is uniquely positioned to lead the world through one of the most overlooked, yet crucial, transitions of the coming decades.
The Middle East: Cooling Expertise Built by Necessity
Few regions understand the stakes of extreme heat like the Gulf. In countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, temperatures routinely exceed 45°C. The challenge of keeping entire cities habitable year-round drove governments to embrace centralized cooling systems early on. District cooling became the foundation of climate control in these urban environments. This approach was not just technical; it was systemic. Much like northern Europe’s coordinated rollout of district heating decades earlier, the Gulf’s investment in cooling infrastructure was led by top-down planning.
District cooling uses significantly less energy than traditional air conditioners, while also reducing peak load pressures and improving urban energy efficiency.
What started as a domestic adaptation strategy can now become a global business model, as companies from the region can export their expertise to Europe, Asia, and beyond, offering scalable, efficient systems tailored to weather a warming world. The Gulf has gone from consumer to innovator, and increasingly, to exporter.
The Global Cooling Crisis: Where the Middle East Can Step In
Rising temperatures and more frequent heat waves across regions are driving new demand for cooling systems, faster growing energy demand, and new strains on energy systems. Electricity systems are under increasing stress as a result of this surge, and many of them are not prepared to manage prolonged peak loads during hot weather. Global cooling demand is expected to triple by 2050; without efficient systems and systematic strategies, that could prove catastrophic for hopes of decarbonization.
In this context, cooling demand is outpacing infrastructure development in emerging economies, especially in Asia and Africa, posing threats to energy access, economic stability, and public health. In Southeast Asia, infrastructure and buildings are deeply unprepared for increasingly common extreme heat waves. Only 15% of buildings currently have access to air conditioning, and for many building types, indoor temperatures frequently exceed ambient temperatures, meaning that many populations lack any shelter from extreme heat. And on top of critical health risks during extreme heat waves, rising temperatures also pose major risks to economic growth and education. As conditions worsen, cooling is expected to account for a fifth of total energy demand in the region by 2050, and up to 30% of demand during peak use.
Europe is facing more and more difficulties too. Europe has been a global leader in central heating—experience shaped by its climate—it is struggling with outdated, decentralized cooling, raising risks for energy security, emissions, and affordability. Since its buildings and energy systems are poorly equipped to handle extreme heat, the continent is currently facing a structural mismatch. Rising temperatures coincide with other seasonal energy pressures, such as the need to replenish gas storage, further complicating efforts to ensure reliable and affordable supply. Efficiency is more important than ever, and yet it is something that Europe’s decentralized cooling systems cannot provide. In this context, cooling is increasingly viewed not only as a climate adaptation issue, but also as a matter of energy security.
With its extensive knowledge of centralized, effective cooling systems, the Middle East is in a good position to provide answers. For nations facing the twin challenges of increasing temperatures and energy system constraints, the region’s integrated approach to planning, infrastructure, and technology can serve as a model.
Cooling Power: A New Geopolitical Strategy
As global climate dialogues increasingly transition from mitigation to incorporate adaptation, cooling is emerging as an unconventional focal point of climate diplomacy. The countries that previously influenced global energy markets through oil and gas have the opportunity to define the next frontier: climate resilience.
For the Gulf, this represents not merely an opportunity to export technology, but a chance to redefine its position in the global energy transition. Efficient cooling systems and their subsequent export may serve as a fundamental component of the region’s economic diversification strategies, bolstering manufacturing, engineering services, and investments in green infrastructure. Simultaneously, cooling diplomacy may facilitate the establishment of new strategic alliances, especially with nations most susceptible to extreme heat. Emerging economies across South Asia and Africa—regions that will account for the large majority of the world’s population and energy demand growth to 2050—offer opportunities to create and strengthen partnerships around cooling, financing, and trade. And with Europe, cooling offers an additional pathway for Gulf countries to make themselves a key part of the continent’s energy future, in addition to its present.
This moment demands a comprehensive reframing of the Middle East’s energy leadership, as Gulf nations can position themselves as enablers of adaptation that simultaneously advances mitigation—a crucial partner in the global effort to sustain habitability on a warming planet.
Policy Priorities
Policy frameworks must be updated to reflect new opportunities in order to fully achieve the potential of efficient cooling technologies. The development of regional strategy centered on “cooling diplomacy” in the Middle East would expand on indications already present at gatherings like COP28, which emphasized the region’s growing climate ambition. Integrating cooling into regional economic planning, international cooperation agendas, and foreign direct investment strategies would represent a logical next step. Cooling would be a natural complement to regional leaders’ emphasis on efficiency and infrastructure development initiatives leading up to and since COP28.
Relevant measures may include the use of sovereign wealth funds to support the development of cooling infrastructure in emerging markets, the expansion of export credit instruments to back region-based technology providers, and the establishment of technical partnerships aimed at modernizing urban systems in heat-vulnerable areas. Developed economies facing new heat challenges, like Europe, can serve as lead markets for the Gulf countries to share their knowledge of centralized cooling models, co-develop infrastructure solutions, and build strategic resilience partnerships. With emerging economies facing extreme heat, leaders in the Middle East can drive deployment through export or cooling-as-a-service models to directly port technology solutions, support local adaptation, and by shaping standards across regions and providing lead financing. GCC countries have already become global leaders in infrastructure finance in emerging economies, and focusing new finance on cooling systems would complement their technological leadership.
Cooling is becoming more widely acknowledged as a vital component of energy and adaptation policy in Europe and the Global South. Incorporating efficient cooling solutions into national climate strategies, urban planning, and regulatory frameworks—particularly building codes and electricity grid design—will be essential. Addressing these challenges through coordinated, systemic approaches is likely to yield greater long-term benefits than fragmented, short-term interventions. Incorporating cooling systems into cross-regional partnerships and government-to-government agreements can be a low-cost first step to enhancing the region’s leadership role and preparing regions on the front lines of climate change to address rising temperatures effectively and efficiently.
Conclusion
The imperative of global cooling has evolved from a remote issue to an urgent and escalating priority. Increasing temperatures are straining existing infrastructure, threatening health and productivity, and revealing the inadequacies of current energy and adaptation systems. Reactive, short-term solutions could aggravate the climate crisis, whereas integrated, efficient strategies provide a route to resilience, sustainability, and equitable access to cooling.
The Middle East has already advanced and developed various technologies and systems that are now becoming vital worldwide, and Gulf countries have long been leaders in the global energy system. By expanding this expertise internationally—not merely as an infrastructure supplier, but as a strategic ally in resilience and development—the region is poised to assume a pivotal role in tackling one of the most pressing energy system evolutions and adaptation challenges of the forthcoming decades.
