New CATF report maps the policy path to unlocking next-generation geothermal across the Western United States
A new report from Clean Air Task Force (CATF) identifies targeted, actionable policies that western state governments can pursue to attract private investment, reduce project risk, and deploy next-generation geothermal energy as a clean firm power resource capable of meeting the region’s growing electricity needs.
While conventional geothermal systems require naturally occurring pockets of hot water, next-generation geothermal can operate wherever subsurface rocks are hot, making it viable to produce power and heat across most of the American West. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that next-generation geothermal could ultimately provide up to 300 gigawatts of power across the country by 2050. CATF modeling indicates that up to 4 terrawatts of U.S. electric capacity if certain innovation thresholds are met. Yet despite a wave of state-level legislative activity in recent years, deployment has remained limited.
“Technology is no longer the primary barrier to next-generation geothermal deployment,” said Ann Garth, Policy Manager for Superhot Rock Geothermal at Clean Air Task Force. “Early-stage financing risks, limited subsurface data in new regions, transmission bottlenecks, and slow permitting processes are the obstacles standing between today’s nascent industry and commercial-scale deployment across the West. Thoughtful and targeted state policy can address these barriers, and the first states to act will capture the economic and energy benefits of a transformative new clean firm resource. This report gives states clear, prioritized recommendations to overcome those barriers.”
To develop its recommendations, CATF interviewed leading geothermal developers across the West and conducted a comprehensive scan of the regulatory and permitting landscape in 14 western states. That research informed a policy framework organized around five key deployment levers: characterizing subsurface resources through data collection and sharing; establishing clear and predictable regulatory frameworks; financing early exploration and demonstration; building supportive infrastructure, especially transmission; and sustaining research and development. Among these, the report identifies several interventions as especially high impact:
- Improving transmission access: Next-generation geothermal resources are often located far from existing grid infrastructure, making transmission a prerequisite for deployment. Every geothermal developer interviewed for the report cited transmission as a top barrier, and most described it as the single largest near-term obstacle their projects face.
- Digitizing historical well logs: Detailed subsurface data is essential for derisking geothermal projects in new regions, but much of the relevant data already collected by states sits in formats that cannot be used in digital analysis. Preliminary cost estimates for digitizing the most geothermal-relevant well logs in most western states ranged from a few hundred thousand to about $1.5 million per state – a fraction of the expense of re-collecting this data through new drilling.
- Establishing procurement requirements targets and milestone-based convertible loans: Early geothermal projects in new regions face a financing gap because they are too capital-intensive for most venture investors and too risky for large-scale infrastructure finance. Targeted financing tools, including procurement requirements targets that create market certainty and convertible loans that distribute risk across project milestones, can derisk these early projects and crowd in private capital.
- Updating permitting regulations and increasing agency capacity: Slow and uncertain permitting timelines add cost and risk to projects at every stage of development. Across CATF’s interviews with leading developers, improving permitting capacity was the single most common recommendation for how a state could most effectively deploy limited resources to advance geothermal.
“Projected electricity demand is growing fast across the West, driven by population growth, electrification, industrial reshoring, and energy-intensive sectors like data centers,” said Dan West, Senior Western Regional Policy Manager at Clean Air Task Force. “Next-generation geothermal can help meet this moment, and state governments don’t need to wait for costs to come down on their own. Targeted policy interventions now can generate the learnings that drive geothermal cost reductions and position early-mover states to capture the economic competitive edge and energy benefits of a growing industry.”
The report includes detailed appendices mapping geothermal regulatory systems and permitting agencies by state, as well as a full set of policy recommendations organized by deployment lever.
Read the full report here.
Press Contact
Steve Reyes, Senior Communication Manager, [email protected], +1 562-916-6463
About Clean Air Task Force (CATF)
Clean Air Task Force (CATF) is a global nonprofit organization working to safeguard against the worst impacts of climate change by catalyzing the rapid development and deployment of low-carbon energy and other climate-protecting technologies. With 30 years of internationally recognized expertise on climate policy and a fierce commitment to exploring all potential solutions, CATF is a pragmatic, non-ideological advocacy group with the bold ideas needed to address climate change. CATF has offices in Boston, Washington D.C., and Brussels, with staff working virtually around the world.
