New CATF analyses outlines what it will take to meet California’s net-zero cement mandate

Two new reports from Clean Air Task Force (CATF) find that California has multiple potential pathways to dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions from cement production, but that technology maturity, significant cost, infrastructure, and policy barriers will need to be addressed for the cement sector to meet the state’s 2045 net-zero mandate. The reports, “Cementing California’s Future: Policy Recommendations for Decarbonizing California’s Cement Sector” and “Assessment of Decarbonization Pathways for California’s Cement Sector,” together provide one of the most detailed public analyses to date of how California can meet the first-in-the-nation cement decarbonization target established by Senate Bill 596.

California’s cement sector produces roughly 8 million metric tons of CO₂ annually, about 2% of statewide emissions, and has seen little improvement since 2010. Cement is among the hardest industrial sectors to decarbonize with roughly 60% of its emissions coming not from burning fuel, but from the chemical process of converting limestone and other materials into clinker, the core ingredient in cement.

“The process emissions inherent to today’s cement production mean that electrification and a decarbonized grid alone won’t get the sector to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions,” said Sam Bailey, Senior Manager, Industrial Innovation at CATF. “What the sector needs is a portfolio of solutions to meet the state’s cement-specific net-zero mandate. These reports show that the right mix of technologies can deliver significant reductions at the lowest cost, but the economics remain a real barrier that will require deliberate policy action to overcome.”

“California is entering a new phase of industrial climate policy,” said Ashley Arax, Senior California Policy Manager at CATF. “As the California Air Resource Board develops the SB 905 carbon management framework, implements updated Cap-and-Invest regulations, and prepares the next Scoping Plan, policymakers have an opportunity to focus on practical solutions for decarbonizing industrial sectors, including cement.”

CATF contracted Synapse Energy Economics to model four decarbonization pathways for a representative California cement plant, each combining carbon capture and storage (CCS) with additional strategies including kiln and pre-calciner electrification, alternative fuels, and limestone calcined clay cement (LC3) production, a blended cement. Key findings include:

• All four pathways deliver substantial emissions reductions immediately upon deployment in 2028, ranging from 72% to 89% below the baseline, and 88% to 93% reductions by 2050 as California’s electricity supply continues to decarbonize.
• Pathways combining LC3 production with CCS offer the lowest lifetime carbon abatement cost at approximately $100 per metric ton of CO₂, driven in part by a 44% reduction in clinker use and therefore reduced energy requirements per ton of cement.
• Full kiln electrification with CCS achieves up to 92% emissions reduction by 2050 but at the highest cost, $479 per metric ton of CO₂, largely due to electricity prices.
• Non-electrification pathways generate, capture, and permanently sequester biogenic CO₂ resulting from the combustion of biogenic-containing alternative fuels. Pathways employing alternative fuels with CCS can achieve net-zero or net-negative emissions (scope 1 and 2 only), particularly as the grid decarbonizes toward 2050.
• While significant emissions reductions are achievable with the technologies analyzed in this report, reaching net-zero across all pathways will require designing for higher carbon capture rates, demonstration of kiln electrification at scale, decreasing electric grid carbon intensity, enabling policies, carbon removal, or additional strategies.

The policy report, coauthored with AJW, identifies tools California policymakers should consider that will support the deployment of a suite of decarbonization technologies, including options with a higher capital and operating costs. These include a State Revolving Loan Fund to provide low- or zero-interest financing for commercially ready decarbonization projects; expanded research, development, and demonstration funding for earlier-stage technologies, such as electric kilns and novel cement chemistries; modifications to California’s Cap-and-Invest program to better reward emissions reductions from CCS and blended cements; and a carbon border adjustment mechanism to ensure that in-state producers that invest in cleaner technologies are not placed at a competitive disadvantage. The report also recommends regulatory measures – including statewide guidance for carbon capture permitting and enhanced public transparency – to provide greater regulatory certainty while ensuring local air quality protections.

Arax continued:

“There is no single policy lever that gets the California cement sector to net-zero. Meeting SB 596’s mandate and the state’s broader climate goals will require a coordinated policy approach that combines financial support, market incentives, and effective regulatory approaches to help overcome the barriers facing cement decarbonization.”

California’s cement decarbonization leadership also carries implications beyond the state. SB 596 has already influenced other states, including Illinois, which referenced California’s approach in its own comprehensive climate action plan that modeled a net-zero cement requirement by 2050. As California moves from target-setting toward implementation, the policy tools it develops will offer a replicable model for other states and jurisdictions working to decarbonize their industrial sectors.

Read the policy report here. Read the technical report here.

---

Press Contact

Steve Reyes, Communication Manager, [email protected], +1 562-916-6463

About Clean Air Task Force (CATF)

Clean Air Task Force (CATF) is a global nonprofit organization working to safeguard against the worst impacts of climate change by catalyzing the rapid development and deployment of low-carbon energy and other climate-protecting technologies. With 30 years of internationally recognized expertise on climate policy and a fierce commitment to exploring all potential solutions, CATF is a pragmatic, non-ideological advocacy group with the bold ideas needed to address climate change. CATF has offices in Boston, Washington D.C., and Brussels, with staff working virtually around the world. 

About AJW

AJW is a policy and strategic consulting firm that navigates policy, regulatory, and environmental issues. From its inception over 20 years ago, AJW has helped clients by utilizing a strategic approach to government policy. With a presence in Washington, D.C., Sacramento, New York, and London, AJW provides insights into key developments at the federal, state, and international levels. We help our clients predict policy, quantify the impact of that policy, and recommend approaches to leverage opportunities and mitigate risks, all while accelerating a path towards decarbonization.

About Synapse

Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Synapse Energy Economics is a research and consulting firm focused on the intersection of energy, economics, and the environment. Since 1996, Synapse experts have provided rigorous technical, quantitative, and policy analysis to help public interest and governmental clients improve planning, policies, and decision-making in the energy sector. Synapse’s team of 40+ includes experts in energy and environmental economics, resource planning, electricity dispatch and economic modeling, all-sector emissions modeling, energy efficiency, renewable energy, transmission and distribution, rate design and cost allocation, risk management, cost-benefit analysis, environmental compliance, and both regulated and competitive electricity and natural gas markets.