Impact of a Japan Methane Import Performance Standard

Clean Air Task Force engaged Rystad Energy during March and April 2024 to assess the potential trade, price, and emissions impact of a cross-border Methane Import Performance Standard if adopted by Japan. The scope of work was limited by the following constraints:

• Anticipated impact on Japan is the primary focus, though broader potential market effects in the region are also considered.
• The report covers the effects on Japan imports of natural gas and crude oil; oil products were out of scope of the analysis.
• The report focuses on recent history and forecasts through 2032.
• This report bases historical methane emissions on the IEA’s Global Methane Tracker 2024, a widely-known and well-documented estimate of global methane emissions from oil and gas. It must be recognized that, at time of writing, there is still no widely accepted, comprehensive estimate of oil and gas emissions. While the tracker is a good starting point for methane emissions, data quality is likely variable at the country-level. For more details, refer to the methodology section of this report, as well as IEA’s documentation.

CATF provided specific guidance on the technical policy mechanisms to be evaluated; otherwise Rystad has conducted this analysis and prepared this report independently.