Exploring Net-Zero Emissions Pathways for Africa Across Different Timelines: An Integrated Assessment Modeling 

Executive Summary

Africa stands at a pivotal moment in the global pursuit of net-zero emissions. Although the continent has historically contributed the least to climate change, it is increasingly under pressure to align with international climate net-zero emissions goal, all while facing surging energy demand, infrastructure deficits, and complex development challenges. We recognized the urgent need to understand how different timelines for achieving net-zero emissions could shape sustainable development outcomes for Africa. In response, we used the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate four scenarios: a Business-as-usual (BAU) (reference case, where no new climate policies are formulated), Net-zero emissions by 2050 (NZ50) (early action), Net-zero by 2070 (NZ70) (moderate action), and Net-zero by 2100 (NZ100) (delayed action)—reflecting varying levels of ambition and timing for climate mitigation. Each scenario represents a different pace of climate ambition and provides a basis to examine trade-offs and synergies across the region’s energy, land, and water systems. 

Our results show that, relative to 2020 levels, primary energy supply in Africa could increase by around sixfold by 2100 in both the BAU and net-zero scenarios. In every net-zero scenario, fossil fuel reliance falls sharply, and renewables emerge as the dominant source of primary energy. In NZ50, this transformation occurs before mid-century, supported by a rapid rollout of wind, solar, and hydropower making renewables account for 59% of primary energy by mid-century. Achieving net-zero, however, also depends on deploying carbon removal technologies like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). NZ50 requires the most aggressive scale-up of BECCS due to the pathway’s aggressive need to cut net emissions at the lowest cost possible. 

The emissions trajectories across scenarios diverge significantly. In BAU, emissions increase from 1.8 GtCO₂ per year in 2020 to 10.4 GtCO₂ by 2100; a nearly sixfold (480%) increase. On the other hand, in NZ50, net emissions decline rapidly, falling below zero by 2050, reaching -0.33 GtCO₂/yr, and maintaining net-negative emissions thereafter. The NZ70 scenario exhibits a more gradual decline compared to NZ50, with net emissions decreasing to 0.56 GtCO₂/yr by 2050 before reaching net-negative levels by 2070. Similarly, the NZ100 scenario, with a net-zero target by 2100, demonstrates an even more moderate net emissions reduction pathway. Emissions decline to 0.9 GtCO₂/yr by 2050 and continue to decrease gradually until reaching net-zero around 2100. These results reinforce that earlier transitions deliver greater long-term climate benefits. 

However, faster mitigation also brings tougher trade-offs. In NZ50, cropland area contracts by 31%, contributing to a near doubling of staple food prices, from $0.59/kg in BAU to $1.16/kg. NZ70 and NZ100 see similarly elevated prices, though with slightly smaller land contractions. Water demand for food crops falls by 14.7% in NZ50 due to reduced agriculture, but BECCS pushes energy-sector water use to 0.91 km³ per year. NZ70 and NZ100 reduce this burden slightly, but trade-offs remain substantial. 

From a cost perspective, NZ50 carries the highest marginal abatement cost (carbon price), averaging $78 per ton of CO₂ over 2025–2100. This is about 15% higher than the $68 per ton in NZ100, and around 7% higher than the $73 per ton in NZ70, reflecting the cost premium of early climate action in Africa. Figure 1 shows how carbon prices vary across timelines. 

Figure 1. Carbon Prices for Africa Under Net Zero Emissions Scenarios

Marginal abatement cost of carbon in Africa under different net-zero timelines. Earlier action scenario (NZ50) incurs higher near-term carbon prices, reaching an average of $78 per ton of CO₂ over 2025–2100. Delayed pathways show lower average prices ($73 and $68 per ton in NZ70 and NZ100, respectively) due to extended decarbonization timelines and increased opportunities for technological cost reductions.  

These findings are summarized through six key takeaways that highlight Africa’s decision space: 

• The timeline matters: Achieving net-zero by 2050 triggers faster transitions, deeper emissions cuts, and higher disruption to food systems, land, and water. Delayed action lowers short-term costs but results in higher cumulative emissions. 

• Net-zero depends on land, and so does food: NZ50 reduces cropland by about 30%, raising food prices significantly. Slower transitions also increase prices, though less drastically. 

• BECCS is essential but resource-intensive: All net-zero scenarios rely on BECCS to counterbalance residual emissions. Early action requires quicker and larger-scale deployment, increasing demand for land and water. 

• Water use shifts from agriculture to energy: As cropland contracts, energy-sector water use rises. Coordinated planning is needed to manage growing competition across sectors. 

• Cost isn’t just about money; it’s about timing: Earlier action costs more up front but avoids long-term emissions lock-in. Later action eases short-term costs but delays potential climate benefits. 

We also find substantial regional variation. Western Africa, heavily reliant on oil and gas, faces the steepest decarbonization challenge. Eastern Africa has abundant hydro and geothermal potential and could leapfrog fossil fuels. Southern Africa must manage a coal-dependent system, possibly with CCS and nuclear. Northern Africa can draw on solar and wind but faces water stress and potential reliance on gas with CCS. There is no one-size-fits-all solution for Africa’s net-zero emissions goal! 

To guide effective responses, we provide five policy implications for African policymakers, grounded in our modeling: 

• Align climate action with land and development realities 
  Fast transitions like NZ50 require significant land reallocation. In African economies where agriculture is central to food security and livelihoods, governments must integrate climate and land-use planning to ensure that mitigation efforts do not undermine food access or rural development. 

• Build institutional capacity and regional cooperation for early action 
  Net-zero by 2050 demands steep upfront investment and governance readiness. Regional power pools, climate finance access, and institutional strengthening will be vital to scale infrastructure and deploy low-carbon technologies quickly and effectively. 

• Invest in electricity reliability through firm capacity and grid upgrades 
  As renewable shares increase, grid modernization and expanded firm capacity through hydropower, geothermal, or gas with CCS will be essential for reliability, industrialization, and inclusive growth. 

• Coordinate energy, water, and agriculture planning to manage resource trade-offs 
  Early BECCS deployment will shift water use from agriculture to energy. Policymakers must proactively integrate water-energy-food nexus planning in all national development and climate plans, especially in regions already facing scarcity. 

• Pursue a sequenced and flexible transition tailored to national capacities 
  For many African countries, an immediate NZ50 pathway may stretch technical and financial resources. A more flexible approach starting with no-regret options like energy efficiency and scaling ambition over time can better align with development goals and institutional readiness. 

In conclusion, we argue that the deadline for achieving net-zero emissions in Africa is not just a technical decision but a developmental one that must reconcile climate ambition with economic growth, equity, and resilience. Africa’s net-zero strategies must be tailored, coordinated, and context-aware. Whether aiming for 2050 or beyond, the path to decarbonization should safeguard food systems, manage resource competition, and support economic transformation, ensuring that our climate ambition is also just and achievable.