Final NECPs show progress, but fall short of being true investment roadmaps
Brussels – This week, the European Commission released its long-awaited assessment of the final updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) submitted by 24 Member States. While the final plans reflect progress compared to earlier drafts, they still fall short of being the full set of investment and implementation tools needed to meet Europe’s 2030 climate goals.
“Despite some general improvement, the final NECPs still fall short as credible investment plans that can accelerate the deployment of clean energy technologies,” said Alejandra Muñoz Castañer, Senior Government Affairs Manager for Europe at CATF. “Member States must use these plans to send clear, credible signals to investors, align with evolving markets, and plan for uncertainty. That means backing targets with national measures, concrete funding strategies, and real resilience.”
NECPs are critical planning documents meant to outline European Union (EU) Member States’ targets, policies, and measures that will enable them to reach 2030 EU climate targets. As an observer to this process at both national and European levels, CATF has actively advocated for the importance of addressing gaps in planning before jumping into implementation. In the report “Bridging the Planning Gap: Transforming European NECPs to Deliver on Climate Targets,” and the NECP Playbooks, CATF showcased concrete guidance to plan for unprecedented clean energy deployment over the coming decade and to prepare for the new geopolitical reality facing the continent.
The Commission’s assessment acknowledges the progress made on the NECPs compared to draft plans submitted last year. If all current national and EU-level policies are fully implemented, the EU will be on track to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by about 54% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. However, the assessment also warned of a substantial “financing and planning gap” and stressed the need for more detailed and credible financing strategies. This gap aligns with CATF’s recommendation for NECPs to clarify specific financing and innovation needs to drive investment.
CATF research also identified the unique potential of the NECPs to serve as a bridge between national and EU-level climate and energy planning, ensuring alignment on goals and targets across all levels of government. But nearly a year after the final submission deadline, Belgium, Estonia, and Poland have yet to submit their updated plans, leaving key gaps in the EU’s collective climate planning.
“Given the urgency of the energy transition and the need for secure, reliable sources and partnerships, it is unfortunate that Poland missed the final submission deadline,” said Tamara Lagurashvili, Director for Central and Eastern Europe at CATF. “Poland’s transition trajectory, though marked by a challenging start, presents significant opportunities –particularly for its strong industrial base and just transition regions. Developing a coherent, systems-oriented, and evidence-driven NECP is a critical step in the process that can no longer be delayed.”
The absence of several NECPs also hinders Europe from incorporating flexibility into planning exercises to account for inevitable challenges – geopolitical, supply chain, or otherwise – that could arise through the next couple of decades.
“2025 is a pivotal year to reflect on where we are – and where we need to be. We are now at the midpoint to 2050 and implementation of the Fit for 55 should be underway. But too many of these plans still lack clarity on how they would translate to national measures, how they secure public funding until and beyond 2030, or how resilient they are to a range of potential disruptions – such as geopolitical conflicts and supply chain challenges,” said Nicole Pavia, Director for Clean Energy Infrastructure at CATF.
The Commission’s assessment comes just before it is due to put forth a legislative proposal on the EU climate targets for 2040. As such, it provides a solid foundation for upcoming discussions on the target level and the actions needed to reach it. Reassured by the progress made so far, the EU can remain firm in its decarbonisation trajectory – and avoid reliance on international credits and other so-called flexibility mechanisms to meet its climate objectives.
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Clean Air Task Force (CATF) is a global nonprofit organisation working to safeguard against the worst impacts of climate change by catalysing the rapid development and deployment of low-carbon energy and other climate-protecting technologies. With more than 25 years of internationally recognized expertise on climate policy and a fierce commitment to exploring all potential solutions, CATF is a pragmatic, non-ideological advocacy group with the bold ideas needed to address climate change. CATF has offices in Boston, Washington D.C., and Brussels, with staff working virtually around the world. Visit catf.us and follow @cleanaircatf.
