With new study and scorecard, scientists call for overhaul to forest carbon credit protocols
BOSTON, Mass. — A new study and scorecard led by Clean Air Task Force (CATF) reveal that the protocols governing forest carbon credits are flawed and are at the root of problems facing the carbon offset market. The study, released by a team of leading forest scientists, evaluates 20 forest carbon credit protocols across voluntary and compliance markets in North America.
“Our new study finds that most forest carbon protocols are currently too weak to ensure that the issued credits are high-quality,” said Kathy Fallon, Director, Land Systems Program at CATF. “Given the large volume of forest carbon credits in the market, it’s time to overhaul these protocols. The good news is that while stronger federal oversight would be helpful, it isn’t needed to improve protocols. Registries and states can revise protocols to implement our recommendations, and companies with climate targets can demand improved quality.”
Forest carbon credits account for nearly 40% of the global voluntary carbon market to date, and activities that boost carbon storage in forests can help slow climate change. Given the state of existing protocols, responsibly purchasing credits requires detailed scrutiny of every project. The study, report, and scorecard highlight several key challenges:
- Permanence concerns: Forest carbon is vulnerable to reversals due to wildfires, pests, and land use changes, yet protocols often inadequately account for the reality of these long-term risks by applying uniform assumptions instead of place-based data.
- Lack of additionality: Weak rules permit overly simplistic assumptions, leading to the potential for some projects to inaccurately claim they deliver carbon reductions well beyond what would have occurred without the project.
- Indirect emissions from leakage: Many protocols fail to adequately account for the degree to which enhancing forest carbon through changed management in one location could lead to increased forest carbon loss elsewhere.
- Monitoring and verification weaknesses: Limited transparency, significant developer discretion, and broad assumptions raise questions about the reliability of carbon credit quantification.
“Stronger forest carbon protocols are not just a technical necessity – they are essential to restoring trust and delivering the real climate benefit that forests can provide,” said Rebecca Sanders-DeMott, Director of Ecosystem Carbon Science at CATF. “Fortunately, we are seeing some signs of improvement, with recently issued protocols stronger than previous versions. We hope to work with regulators, registries, and states to further strengthen these protocols and implement the improvements identified by our team of forest science experts. In the absence of strong federal oversight, we can still drive progress by creating clear demand for quality—ensuring companies and landowners alike can continue to engage with these markets in a meaningful, effective way.”
The scientists identified key areas where protocols can be improved by integrating the best available science including:
- Specifying the use of up-to-date, place-based data maintained by independent entities to improve the accuracy and reliability of carbon quantification.
- Developing methods to account for changing conditions like climate impacts and economic pressure when estimating the impact of the project intervention over time.
- Structuring protocols to enable timely updates to risk ratings, new methods for carbon monitoring, and key parameters to reflect the best available science.
- Enhancing monitoring and verification standards, increasing transparency, and requiring protocols to evolve with improvements in science and technology.
- Radical improvements in transparency, alleviation of verifier conflicts of interest in carbon markets, and considerations of non-greenhouse gas climate impacts.
“The science behind forest carbon accounting and the data to support it have evolved tremendously over the past decade,” said Lucy Hutyra, Professor at Boston University. “It’s time for all protocol developers to put this information to use to protect investments in the vital role that forests can play in mitigating climate change.”
While several previous reports have exposed problems with individual forest projects, this study is the first to score the protocols used to issue forest carbon credits. The voluntary carbon market, which peaked at $2 billion in 2022, faces ongoing scrutiny due to concerns over credit integrity. Market projections suggest it could either shrink further or grow to $1 trillion by 2050, depending on credit quality and the development of national and international carbon markets.
In addition to improving the current system, the report underscores the need to expand non-offsetting funding for projects that help forests reduce and withstand climate change.
At COP29 in Azerbaijan in 2024, negotiators delivered a breakthrough on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, establishing an international framework for trading carbon credits from emissions reductions and removals. However, trust in carbon markets has eroded, and CATF has emphasized the need for strong oversight to restore confidence, prevent fraud, and ensure real climate benefits. As these markets develop, CATF will advocate for strong protocols that will produce the highest-quality credits, particularly in forest carbon and biomass-based carbon removal, to drive meaningful climate action.
The full study, report, executive summary, and scorecard are available at forestcarbonprotocols.org.
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About Clean Air Task Force
Clean Air Task Force (CATF) is a global nonprofit organization working to safeguard against the worst impacts of climate change by catalyzing the rapid development and deployment of low-carbon energy and other climate-protecting technologies. With more than 25 years of internationally recognized expertise on climate policy and a fierce commitment to exploring all potential solutions, CATF is a pragmatic, non-ideological advocacy group with the bold ideas needed to address climate change. CATF has offices in Boston, Washington D.C., and Brussels, with staff working virtually around the world. Visit catf.us and follow @cleanaircatf.
