Road to Belem: To better understand Paris Agreement progress, look beyond NDCs
With COP29 in the rearview and COP30 in Belem, Brazil, entering the horizon, much of the climate world is focused on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and a crucial indicator of climate progress goes unseen.
Reports show that only 13 countries have met the official NDC submission deadline of 10 February. These are the U.S., UK, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, New Zealand, Switzerland, Uruguay, Andorra, Ecuador and Saint Lucia, the Marshall Islands, Singapore and Zimbabwe. As a result, the United Nations (UN) has extended their deadline for NDC submissions, giving countries until September to submit their NDCs for inclusion in the Secretariat’s NDC Synthesis Report, set to be presented at COP30 in Brazil.
NDCs are a necessary and critical part of the Paris Agreement, setting out countries’ targets and plans for meeting the Agreement’s temperature targets. They also act as a signal for public and private sector investment in the clean energy transition.
But as scientists warn that we’re on track to shoot far past 1.5 degrees, it’s crucial to have a system that shows us where we stand relative to our climate goals – and, most importantly, holds countries accountable for the commitments they have made so far. NDCs alone don’t do that, so where else can we look?
Enter: the Biennial Transparency Report
Why Biennial Transparency Reports deserve the world’s attention
Before COP29, CATF outlined how the Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) process will provide the first true litmus test of how prepared countries are to turn their climate commitments into measurable progress.
Like NDCs, BTRs are a crucial part of the Paris Agreement architecture. BTRs form a key part of the Paris Agreement’s five-year ambition cycle, in which Parties outline their NDCs and track their progress towards meeting them. They are a test of the Paris Agreement’s transparency and accountability process – providing a valuable overview of global emissions and whether countries are truly on track to meet their climate targets.
BTRs are designed to provide a clear picture of global climate action, by measuring progress towards the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement. When tracking progress towards their NDCs, Parties are required to include information on their NDC target, the implementation timeframe, and indicators they will use to monitor progress. Parties must also outline the sectoral policies and measures they are implementing to meet their NDC targets. As part of this, they are encouraged to also incorporate initiatives and pledges they have signed up to.
Country adherence to the BTR process and deadlines has been far stronger than for NDCs. 98 countries have submitted their BTRs, with 91 countries submitting by the 31 December 2024 deadline. More than half of these are from non-Annex I Parties, many of whom are developing countries. These submissions include COP hosts Azerbaijan and Brazil, and top emitters China and the US.
Biennial Transparency Reports and the road to COP30
Whilst this is still a way off from full participation of the 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement, the growing number of submissions is a promising sign that the architecture of the Paris Agreement is working. The content of the reports is unlikely to paint a rosier picture of climate progress, but they underline the key enduring value of the agreement: transparency and reporting on emissions and progress towards decarbonization are essential to accountability and to countries’ planning for the energy transition.
For the first time, a BTR Synthesis Report will be published ahead of COP30. Anyone closely examining NDC submissions, particularly in the lead up to COP30 in Brazil, must also consider the BTRs. These reports offer a picture of how countries are tracking against their targets now, rather than merely outlining ambitions for the 2030s when we may well have already exceeded critical temperature thresholds.
