Epidemiological studies consistently link ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) to negative health impacts, including asthma, heart attacks, hospital admissions, and premature mortality. A team of leading global scientists led by James Corbett modeled ambient PM concentrations from oceangoing ships using two geospatial emissions inventories and two global aerosol models. This groundbreaking work, which was peer-reviewed and published in the December 15, 2007 issue of the American Chemical Society Journal Environmental Science & Technology, estimated for the first time global and regional mortalities by applying ambient PM increases due to ships to cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration-risk functions and population models. The results indicate that shipping-related PM emissions are responsible for approximately 60,000 cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths annually, with most deaths occurring near coastlines in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia. Under current regulation and with the expected growth in shipping activity, the study estimates that annual mortalities could increase by 40% by 2012. This scientific study was supported in part by the Clean Air Task Force with assistance from the Oak Foundation.
Follow-up Examination of Two Emission Reduction Scenarios
"Mortality from Ship Emissions–A Global Assessment" provides a base case for global shipping emissions mortality. This initial study, however, did not examine the human health impacts from a reduction of shipping emissions.
Such an examination has now been conducted, and it demonstrates that a substantial reduction of the sulfur content of marine fuel can save tens of thousands of lives around the world each year. Many of the same leading scientists who conducted the initial study collaborated again to examine the effect on premature mortality from two emission reduction scenarios. This follow-up study utilized the same information and methodology as the first study, changing only the type of marine fuel used. In addition to a "no action" scenario assuming the use of heavy fuel oil, the study examined a "coastal" scenario assuming the use of marine distillate fuel with a sulfur content of 0.1%, but only within areas 200 nautical miles from coastlines worldwide; and a "global" scenario assuming the use of marine distillate fuel with a sulfur content of 0.5% in all regions of the globe.
The results of the study are compelling–both emission reduction scenarios substantially reduced the estimated annual premature death toll from international shipping from almost 84,000 in 2012 ("no action") by about 42,000 for the coastal scenario and by about 50,000 for the global scenario, a 50% and 60% reduction, respectively. This follow-up study was supported by the Clean Air Task Force with assistance from the Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund.