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Ahead of the Curve 

Corn Ethanol: The Next New Coke?

May 7th, 2012 by Jonathan Lewis, Senior Counsel - Climate Policy, and Conrad Schneider, Advocacy Director

This posting originally appeared in the National Journal’s Energy and Environment Experts blog.

How do you get Americans to pay for something they don’t really want in the first place? Most of the time – as in the case of New Coke, Harley Davidson Perfume, and the U.S. Football League – the answer is simple: you can’t.

But where the Edsel failed, corn ethanol has somehow succeeded. Despite its drawbacks (which are legion – a point we’ll get to later), more than 13 billion gallons of corn ethanol were sold in the United States last year.

How did it happen? Corn ethanol has outlived Pepsi AM and the Betamax because its backers hit upon a three-part recipe for success: a huge dose of federal subsidies mixed with high gas prices and untethered rhetoric.
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Arctic drilling Must Protect the Climate

April 30th, 2012 by Jonathan Banks, Senior Climate Policy Advisor, and Conrad Schneider, Advocacy Director

This posting originally appeared in the National Journal’s Energy and Environment Experts blog.

Two years ago the world turned its attention to the Gulf of Mexico and the tragedy that was unfolding there, with the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform. This disaster brought a reinvigorated focus to the safety of offshore drilling, but the term safety must now be understood to not just cover spills and leaks, but also the impacts that drilling has on the climate, especially when done in the fragile environment of the Arctic.

It is well understood that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion in our cars and power plants are responsible for the majority of earth’s global warming. Less appreciated, though, is that methane emissions account for nearly half as much of the warming we are currently experiencing as carbon dioxide. The oil and natural gas industries are the largest source of methane emissions from the US. Oil and gas extraction can also be significant sources of black carbon, another potent climate pollutant.
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New Rules for Gas: Good Policy, Delayed

April 24th, 2012 by Darin Schroeder, Legal Fellow, Ann Weeks, Senior Counsel and Legal Director, and David McCabe, Atmospheric Scientist

This posting originally appeared in the National Journal’s Energy and Environment Expert Blog.

Last week, EPA announced New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for the oil and natural gas industry. These new rules are an important and long-awaited step towards better control of the air pollution emitted by this rapidly expanding sector.

Notably, the standards include the first federal air pollution regulations for hydraulically fractured (fracked) natural gas wells. That, plus new regulation of other equipment in this industry, represents significant progress in combating air pollution, especially as forecasts project increasing reliance on natural gas for generating electricity. Without these rules, air pollution from new gas wells and equipment would continue to increase; now the industry must begin to clean up nationwide. Once the rule finally goes into full effect, VOC emissions, a precursor of ground-level smog, will be reduced by hundreds of thousands of tons per year; toxic chemicals like benzene will be reduced by 12,000 – 20,000 tons per year. And, as a co-benefit of the pollution control measures needed to achieve the new standards, emissions of methane will be reduced by 1.0 – 1.7 million tons a year. This rule therefore eventually will provide significant air quality and climate benefits.
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Memo To EPA: Stay Strong On Oil and Gas Standards

April 11th, 2012 by David McCabe, Atmospheric Scientist, and Ann Weeks, Senior Counsel and Legal Director

Next week, EPA will issue final New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for conventional air emissions from the oil and natural gas industry. The standards must require the capture of hundreds of thousands of tons of smog-forming emissions emitted annually by this industry, along with millions of tons of methane.

Methane – the primary component of natural gas – is both a valuable fuel and a potent pollutant, 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a driver of climate change over a 100-year period. The methane emissions from U.S. oil and gas operations warm global climate as much as 16% of all the CO2 from U.S. coal-fired power plants. With a strong rule, those emissions will be cut by a quarter, so EPA clearly has an excellent opportunity to begin to address this dangerous climate pollutant.
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At Last: A First Step on GHGs

April 5th, 2012 by Ann Weeks, Senior Counsel and Legal Director

This posting originally appeared in the National Journal’s Energy and Environment Expert Blog.

Last week, the Administration took a bold step forward to curb greenhouse gas emissions. In a long-anticipated action, EPA proposed new source performance standards (NSPS) for fossil-fueled power plants that would limit emissions from new plants to a rate of 1,000 lbs. of CO2 per megawatt-hour, averaged annually. This level is comparable to the annual average emissions rate of the existing fleet of U.S. natural gas power plants. The rule levels the playing field between coal and gas on greenhouse gas emissions, so new coal and gas plants will compete on price. When finalized, the rule will provide a much-needed and long-overdue step on the path towards full decarbonization of all domestic coal and gas power plants.
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Public Transit Buses: Diesel or CNG?

March 12th, 2012 by Conrad Schneider, Advocacy Director

Recently, Pittsburgh’s mayor, Luke Ravenstahl, announced that his city would buy four new garbage trucks fueled by compressed natural gas (CNG) rather than diesel because, among other reasons, it would improve local air quality. Like Pittsburgh, many municipalities are dealing with an aging fleet of vehicles and weighing the environmental and economic costs associated with updating their fleet.

CATF commissioned a study on the environmental impacts of both new diesel and new CNG transit buses that concluded that while both have much smaller negative environmental impacts than the older buses currently in use, a new CNG bus is not necessarily better for air quality or climate impact than a new diesel bus. Specifically, the study found that while new CNG buses may have marginally lower particulate matter and volatile organic compound emissions, they may have higher greenhouse gas and nitrogen oxide emissions. Additionally, CNG engines are simply less efficient than diesel engines at traveling the same distance, which must be taken into account.
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Enhanced Oil Recovery takes a big step forward

March 3rd, 2012 by Kurt Waltzer, Carbon Storage Development Coordinator

There was some rare bipartisan good news on the Hill this week, with the release of the National Enhanced Oil Recovery Initiative (NEORI) study and policy recommendations. Congressman Mike Conaway (R-TX) joined Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) for the announcement in the Dirksen Senate Office Building, and three other Senators (Baucus, D-MT, Hoeven, R-ND and Lugar, R-IN) supplied written statements in support NEORI’s objective to significantly ramp up the use of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in this country. If the report’s recommendations are implemented, the Initiative’s recommendations will significantly decrease our dependence on imported oil, reduce CO2 emissions, and will create good, permanent jobs in the U.S., while adding billions of additional dollars to the federal treasury without raising taxes. The initiative, convened by C2ES and the Great Plains Institute, has support from environmental groups, fossil energy companies, labor, and bioenergy companies – including Clean Air Task Force, NRDC, Southern Company, GE, the AFL-CIO, and Archer Daniels Midland. Seems too good to be true? Read on.

Enhanced Oil Recovery has been successfully utilized in West Texas since 1972, pumping pressurized CO2 deep underground into depleted oil fields to force up hundreds of millions of barrels of oil that would be otherwise not recoverable. During EOR, most CO2 is trapped in the rock., but because CO2 is both valuable and limited in supply, the CO2 that is not trapped returns to the surface mixed with the oil, and is separated, recycled and reused for additional EOR. Eventually, all the CO2 that is purchased by the EOR facility stays trapped in the micro-pores of the oil field, just as the oil was – deep below layers of impermeable caprock. Nearly a billion tons of CO2 have been safely injected since the practice of CO2 EOR began 40 years ago. EOR currently accounts for 281,000 barrels of oil per day, or 6% of our total domestic oil production. But, with next-generation technology, CO2 EOR could provide the U.S. with an additional 67 billion barrels of oil, and requiring 20 billion tons of CO2 to produce it – resulting in millions of additional barrels per day. Moreover, this figure could be much higher as new CO2 EOR oil reserves known as “residual oil zones” are proven. So what’s the holdup? Essentially, adequate supplies of CO2.

Meanwhile, abundant supplies of CO2 are being vented from industrial sources each year, trapping more and more heat in our atmosphere. For example, coal and gas power plants in the U.S. emit 2.4 billion tons to the atmosphere each year. And, according to a study last year by the National Energy Technology Laboratory, the EOR industry is facing 20 billion tons of unmet demand for CO2. If we could direct the CO2 from being emitted where it harms the climate to US oil fields, we would reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere while also reducing the amount of oil imported into the US. We would also begin broad deployment of a technology that is necessary for decarbonizing our energy system – carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). The potential scale of deployment for this technology will spur innovation and reduce costs.

To increase US EOR production and drive the deployment of low carbon energy technology, the NEORI study recommends a number of federal and state incentives, including tax breaks for CO2 capturers, such as power plant operators, and for transporters, including pipeline operators, to jumpstart the fledgling CO2 industry in this country. The recommendations include the development of a new tax incentive that would provide a tax credit for the first ten years for CO2 emitters who become CO2 suppliers to the EOR industry. This tax incentive more than pays for itself through additional revenue from federal taxes on the incremental additional oil that is produced. In other words, the cost of the incentive is smaller than the additional revenue that would be generated by the additional production and sale of new domestic oil. And this incremental new oil (and taxes) can’t be produced without the CO2, so it’s new, real money to help with our federal balance sheet problems. NEORI estimates this program would add a net present value of $100 billion to the US treasury over a 40-year period. NEORI also offers recommendations for modifying the existing Section 45Q Federal Tax Credit for Carbon Dioxide Sequestration, and suggests a number of model state policies including tax credits, exemptions or abatements, and the inclusion of CCS in electricity portfolio standards, among others.

All the supporters of this effort may not share a common view about fossil fuels or climate change, but they all understand this is indeed a win-win-win. Are there risks? Sure, if oil prices dropped substantially and stayed there, then the incentive might not pay for itself. An even bigger challenge is that the atmosphere in Washington may be so toxic that even a no-brainer like this idea won’t move forward. But if there was ever a chance for a big idea to succeed in our current political climate – EOR is it.

Decarbonization: The Nuclear Option

February 14th, 2012 by Mike Fowler, Director, Advanced Technology, and Armond Cohen, Executive Director

This posting originally appeared in the National Journal’s Energy & Environment Experts blog.

Three years ago, MIT’s Richard Lester published a simple analysis of what would be required to meet President Obama’s 83%-by-2050 greenhouse gas emission reduction target. The results were stark: Even if energy efficiency were to improve at rates 50% better than historical averages, and biofuels were able to meaningfully reduce transportation emissions in the near term (a proposition with which we disagree), meeting Obama’s goal would require retrofitting every existing coal plant in the country with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), building twice again that much fossil capacity with CCS, building close to 3,000 wind farms the size of Massachusetts’ Cape Wind, and building nearly 4,000 solar farms the size of California’s Ivanpah. And, having done all that, increasing the amount of nuclear power we generate by a factor of five.
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Many climate decisions ahead for EPA

January 25th, 2012 by Armond Cohen, Executive Director

This posting originally appeared in the National Journal’s Energy and Environment Expert Blog.

photoWhatever the symbolic importance of the Keystone XL decision, it is only one of several climate-related policy decisions facing the Administration this year – and arguably one of the less significant ones. The Environmental Impact Statement on the project produced by the U.S. Department of State estimates that stopping the pipeline would avoid between 3 and 21 MMT CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions annually. While environmental commenters have suggested that this estimate may understate these benefits, they haven’t yet provided alternatives.
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Zero Emissions from Natural Gas?

January 17th, 2012 by Armond Cohen, Executive Director

This posting originally appeared in the National Journal’s Energy and Environment Expert Blog.

photoWith the global explosion of unconventional gas production, reports of the death of the fossil fuel economy are, to paraphrase Mark Twain, greatly exaggerated. Gas may not stay at its current extraordinarily low price, but the market landscape seems to be altered for quite some time.

The explosion of low-cost shale gas reserves is a two-edged climate sword. Generating electricity with gas is 30 to 50 percent less carbon-intensive than coal when leaks and releases of methane, the main component of natural gas, are accounted for. (For other uses like vehicle fuel, we haven’t seen any evidence that gas is better than other fossil fuels, and if vehicles leak even a small amount, natural gas could be worse than gasoline). But even for electricity, gas is still a high-carbon fuel: replacing all coal-fired generation with gas would get us only part of the way to the 80 percent CO2 reduction needed by mid-century. Moreover, new gas plants are more likely to displace new zero-carbon generation sources than to displace existing cheap coal plants. Carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere stays there, causing warming, for many centuries. By some estimates, the amount of CO2 already emitted has committed the world to warming in excess of 2 degrees Celsius, which is well outside human experience; to hold the increase to 3-4 degrees might well require zeroing out carbon emissions by mid-century.
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